The allure of self-confidence (jpy)

     Hello,
As awaited the Japanese news was released and helped our trades. Usd/Jpy didn't move immediately in our direction, but sometimes moves play out over the course of a few hours as traders figure out what they want to do and the manipulators have chance to run those positions.
     Japanese purchasing of foreign bonds had increased from 44.2bln yen to 675.2bln yen, foreign stocks had increased from 382.1bln yen to 457.9bln yen. As for their purchasing of Japanese bonds, that dropped from 236.3bln yen to 70.2bln yen. Purchasing of Japanese stocks dropped from 464.8bln yen to 104.bln yen. Wow! the purchasing of foreign bonds increased +1428%. That blows me away, and the purchasing of domestic bonds and stocks fell an average of -74%. In a simplistic view of this, a layman's view, I would say this shows their doubt in the stability of their economy. I haven't delved too deep into the structure of their finances, so they could be balancing it all out in some way, but as for trading it on a time frame of a couple days, I think most traders are looking at the currency the way I stated. From the time of this economic news, the Usd/Jpy has moved up about +0.17% as I type this. The pair also seems to be unable to find a direction and wants to oscillate back and forth across the 117.45, ranging between 117.10 to 117.70
     For tomorrow we have non-farm payrolls and unemployment, so we'll go ahead and hold to see what happens then.

Have a good evening and good luck,
Professor Chaney

IPA $67 keg..... OIL $50 and below

People have been speculating for some time about the true underlying reasons as to why and how the oil l price has been declining and where it will go. We have the Saudi's stating that we will never see $100 a barrel of oil again. Then we have the Secretary General Abdell El-Bardri saying that oil will climb up to $200 a barrel.
The Saudi's have been lowering prices to cripple the American fracking rigs. Its working, North Dakota as well as all other minor fracking Fields across the U.S. are shutting down. Manipulation to put America's production on halt could be OPEC's doing. It is like Wal-mart vs. mom and pop stores if you can wipe out all the small stores then you can reign supreme because you are the monopoly. It took over six months for many oil and fracking companies just to turn off the tap even though they saw the demand decreasing and prices plummeting. Most if not all these companies will never be able start up again because its all leveraged out with junk bonds. The lack of investors will make it impossible to open the way it was. The population is growing, that means demand for food and other conveniences such as oil and energy will grow regardless. It is estimated that by 2030 China's demand for oil will increase 600%, even though demand is low now it may not be soon enough.
Many theories are on the table, I personally see this as economic war. The U.S. is driving the price down in targeted countries Russia, Venezuela and Iran. These counties will soon be replaced with pro-westerns leaders, most likely by the Obama Administration. Putin, Maduro and Rouhanie are on the United States "blacklist". Putin is a major target, he has the will and drive to assert their *sovereignty*. He supports Assad because he was freely elected. However he opposes Islamic fundamentalism. Other nations bow under America's drone bombs and trade agreements, like China has been doing. The world buckles under the "extra-sovereign" companies like Monsanto and Apple. On the other side of this onslaught is really just one man, Putin. There's a second guy in Greece, but the powers that be will make sure he doest have a leg to stand on.

Positions update.

Current positions update.
It's now Wednesday and positions have continued with our directional bias, Up. To over view our positions, we are holding the following positions all longs (buys). Aud/jpy, Eur/chf, Gbp/chf, Gbp/jpy, Usd/chf, and Usd/jpy. The Aud/jpy and Usd/jpy positions have retracted some since there ultimate high, but the Swiss Franc associated trades that we sold it against have more than made up for the strength of Japanese Yen (jpy). I could get into some macro fundamental breakdown of why the pairs are moving in the way that is playing out, but trading it on a shorter time frame of positions being held for only days, I think the technical aspect is more relevant and I don't really have it in me to come up with some fundamental bs today. Instead we'll just go over some facts about the trades.
     The Eur/chf pair had originally sold off about -18%, our trade in that has moved up about +3.3%. Our Gbp/chf trade is up about +3.6%, that had sold off some -15% since the Swiss National Bank (SNB) removal of the Eur/chf $1.20 support barrier. Usd/chf is at +2.6% rebound from it's -14% sell off. Where are these going to end up you may ask? Beats me, my guess is we will probably hold close to the current levels with a possible testing of the high water marks from earlier this week. Both the Eur/chf and Gbp/chf reached up over a +4% rebound before settling back down to where they are currently. The Japanese yen trades have completely evaporated their gains and the Aud/jpy, Usd/jpy pairs are now posting a loss.
     In one hour and 40 minutes Japanese retail sales are being released for year on year (y/y), so hopefully this will help out positions. Later at midnight my time, Great Britain national house prices month on month (m/m) are being released. Two hours after that German unemployment change and rate will be released, this could help out our Eur/chf trade, so of course we'll be praying for the best outcome.

That's all I got for right now, good luck.
Professor Chaney

Reassurance is our only FEAR

Okay, with all the news being about Ebola, I did not want to engross my readers with more information that we already know. Let me be the one to put a twist on it.

            Anytime that the government is telling us that we have nothing to fear, we should be very afraid. I am quite sure Hitler told all the countries he took over and the people he killed “not to be afraid” as well. As history repeats itself time and again, a common theme is the reassurance to the people, to reduce panic and fear by the emperors and kings just as they turn their back on their own people and leave them to die. In 2014 I am stunned by the lack of important measures taken to prevent this disease from spreading.

            The incompetence is unreal, we are seeing it with the CDC, the hospitals, even our own president, who is making this seem like we have control over something that is already too big to regain any hope for the soon to be 100,000,000s of people infected. Let’s just estimate 8,000 people out of the say 20 million combined countries in Africa where infected bodies are laying in the streets and handled by family members, with no adequate systems for sewage and water. If it is transmitted by fluids, is it in the water ways and how long till it mutates in some of the highest populated countries and becomes airborne?

 According to Obama there is nothing to fear, and information given by the CDC members is overly reassuring, all is fine, despite the  attempts to track down all passengers and anyone who has come in contact with the infected, or that it costs over $150,000 to clean an apartment after, but its fine to travel. With Americas extreme caution and use of experimental drugs on patients any infected would be idiots not to come here or send a sick family member here or Europe for treatments. We now have an infected nurse flying on not one, but two flights. A nurse spoke out saying some members broke “optional” quarantine and went for soup. We have optional tests at airports and are flying in people from Africa.

Many may think this to be population control. I feel it’s way deeper than that NIH keeps pushing to vaccinate entire countries with a new Ebola vaccine, it may be that the true threat will lie in the vaccine itself. Pharmaceutical companies are just like many of the  bankers and the FED, corrupt and out for themselves. With the healthcare system totally turned around by Obama care and costing 300 billion more than expected. It seems to be nice timing for a major disease to break out that has no cure, the FEDs bubble is bursting and market collapsing, lets blame it all on the outbreak and ISIS while we gain more oil and buy up gold and PMs, sit back and burn the fiat to keep warm.

Ali, Ali, Ali debt we're free...

38% to $93.89 a share, Alibaba’s worth $231.44 billion, Chinese e-commerce giant is now worth much more than many of the large companies in the USA While Ma said… Alibaba will be bigger than the USA's Wal-Mart, but the massive retailer is still worth $248 billion, he is close. While Google at $403 billion still ahead. Still leading Johnson & Johnson has a cap at $305 billion. Warren Buffett’s conglomerate at $339 billion. Wells Fargo is still up and worth more than Alibaba, with a market cap of $279 billion However… Ali is bigger Than proctor and gamble, P&G’s $229 billion. AT&T with a low of $184 billion. Coca cola even is only worth $184 billion. JPMorgan Chase as we know is lower than Ali at $230 billion. Even face book at $203 billion. Ali and the growing strong economy of consumers is Asia has just begun if we can switch positions with them as the biggest exporter to the ever-changing economy and make china our major consumer than the US may have hope.

Don't turn down the volume! REVERSE IT

How the Scottish impacted the world… besides war hero’s, architects and engineers, amazing poets and well as we know Shakespeare made Macbeth a infamous king. They invented the television and the telephone. The nation’s finances had been so bad in 1694 Scotland co founded the Bank of England. They even invented the first waterproof fabric, and rubber wheel. Now they have helped make the USD strong as people still afraid to invest in the EUR, GBP, even the JPY is at a low, with the vote a big No people may start having faith in those currencies again. The USD is also staying strong because of other volume factors. What I mean by this is that when the US stock market is up and the USD is strong people want to invest and traders feel safe for another day or week sometimes even minutes of safety are everything to a traders calls. But is the US stock market up? To most newbie’s they would say yes. This is when volume comes into play, the S&P is up but that has only 500 stocks, the DOW 30 and NASDAQ 100 so when you think of all the US stocks and see all of them in green then you look at the nations debt, and other attributing negative factors. Make sure your looking at stocks that are like RUSSELL 2000 not just the few that volume moves.Watch out for those reverse signals with the USD,Gold may be on the rise but for now still holding short at 1309.88 current price 1216.00 a gain of 7.1% Fxmade2trade

In the INTEREST of GOLD

So my last post was about the correlation of crude oil and gold, war and location. Within all trades many correlations exist, its good to know and understand them, so you then can position yourself correctly. One of these correlations is the rise and fall of interest rates and the rise and fall of gold, since gold has no interest, it dips when interest rates rise and peaks as the interest rates fall, so that would indicate that you buy gold when rates are low and sell when rates are high. Because this is an accepted correlation, the central banks are watching the market for indication showing prolonged inflation, and have policies that could reverse this correlation. In fact the we saw this opposite reaction when rates rose the price of gold peaked in Europe and in India in 2011, this was an exception in decades of historical data. Many other factors can influence the bullion market, fear seems to move it the most, and that no one can predict. Holding short at 1309.88 current price 1240.00 gain of 4.6%

Put'in all your eggs in one basket

With the tension still building between Russia and Ukraine, we are finally starting to feel the backlash of the war that we had not seen thus far. People have been bailing on the euro and buying up the USD, not because the USD is strong with a solid economy, it is the fear of Vladimir Putin’s unpredicted moves and the issues with the ECB. Since the beginning of the year the euro has lost over 6% against the dollar and now the USD has been gaining in ways that no one could have predicted surpassing the GBP and the JPY. Many different things can influence the strength or weakness of the USD but one thing is proven as the USD gets stronger the price of gold is declining. Holding short at 1309.88 current price 1255.50 gain of 4.1%