Positions update.

Current positions update.
It's now Wednesday and positions have continued with our directional bias, Up. To over view our positions, we are holding the following positions all longs (buys). Aud/jpy, Eur/chf, Gbp/chf, Gbp/jpy, Usd/chf, and Usd/jpy. The Aud/jpy and Usd/jpy positions have retracted some since there ultimate high, but the Swiss Franc associated trades that we sold it against have more than made up for the strength of Japanese Yen (jpy). I could get into some macro fundamental breakdown of why the pairs are moving in the way that is playing out, but trading it on a shorter time frame of positions being held for only days, I think the technical aspect is more relevant and I don't really have it in me to come up with some fundamental bs today. Instead we'll just go over some facts about the trades.
     The Eur/chf pair had originally sold off about -18%, our trade in that has moved up about +3.3%. Our Gbp/chf trade is up about +3.6%, that had sold off some -15% since the Swiss National Bank (SNB) removal of the Eur/chf $1.20 support barrier. Usd/chf is at +2.6% rebound from it's -14% sell off. Where are these going to end up you may ask? Beats me, my guess is we will probably hold close to the current levels with a possible testing of the high water marks from earlier this week. Both the Eur/chf and Gbp/chf reached up over a +4% rebound before settling back down to where they are currently. The Japanese yen trades have completely evaporated their gains and the Aud/jpy, Usd/jpy pairs are now posting a loss.
     In one hour and 40 minutes Japanese retail sales are being released for year on year (y/y), so hopefully this will help out positions. Later at midnight my time, Great Britain national house prices month on month (m/m) are being released. Two hours after that German unemployment change and rate will be released, this could help out our Eur/chf trade, so of course we'll be praying for the best outcome.

That's all I got for right now, good luck.
Professor Chaney

SNB, CHF reaction squared

Hello again fellow traders!

With the (SNB)Swiss National Bank having surprised the currency markets with the removal of the 1.20 Eur/Chf support barrier, it was only a matter of time until currency pairs trading against the (CHF) Swiss Franc recouped some of their loss. Those losses from the date of the SNB meeting averaged a loss of over -15% paired with the majors Eur, Gbp and Usd. Having dropped that large of an amount, the market has been poised for a recovery of those moves. Such a large amount of people disintegrated the week of January 15th, that the market was able to rebound since there was no loss to the 'market'. So much money vanished, where usually stops would be run on people trying to buy the rebound, that I think the pairs Eur/chf, Gbp/chf, Usd/chf will be left alone to rebound, because enough stops were run to cover weeks and months of trading. If anything, I think most traders that do specialize in those pairs are hesitant to catch a falling knife, which means there could be low volume on the buy side (low amount of stops) and traders that are coming in late trying to sell on the up moves are having their stops run. Yeah, just about everyone is getting burned with CHF associated pairs. Even those who are trading Euro associated pairs are feeling the heat. One would think after the Euro was hammered from the SNB, then the (ECB) European Central Bank, that a safe play would be buying the Euro against anything other than CHF. Like the Eur/aud, Eur/gbp, Eur/jpy or the Eur/usd. Somehow that already seems to be integrated within the 'invisible hand' of the currency market. 'It' knows traders are scared to trade the CHF, so they would be trading other Euro pairs, hence Eur/chf going sky high^, no one is trading it. Except you and I. Holding the following long (buy) positions Aud/jpy, Eur/chf, Gbp/chf, Gbp/jpy, Usd/chf and Usd/jpy.

Thank you, please feel free to comment on any post.
Professor Chaney

Don’t Do The Crime If You Can’t Pay The Fine…

With Christmas right around the corner, we should see our ponzi numbers soaring upward creating a stronger than should be USD.  Since 70% of Americans are consumers, with our numbers looking better than estimated Americans are feeling the full force of commercialism and the pressure to spend. This is always good for the USD; the low cost in oil and gas are fueling the cognitive dissonance between spending and saving.  Even though personally, I cannot see the greenback sailing on the way it has for another long stretch. I do see why traders are eagerly selling off the GBP with what has been taking place in the UK.

The people in the UK are appalled at the reality that the banks have been paying hundreds of millions to avoid jail time, for manipulating the market, literally robbing them blind.  The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) regulation in the UK has fined five banks so far reaching the billions for “rigging” the foreign exchange rate and more. Leading the FCA enforcement is Tracey McDermott who has now been active on campaigning the need to do something more than just fine the bankers who seem to have jail immunity.  McDermott read back bank statements from 2002 all the way to 2014, so far, bankers just don’t seem to care for instance, the multinational bank Barclay's was fined for “rigging” lending rates, and the next day traders manipulated the gold market.  This is not really a surprise they had been accused of money laundering in 2004, and again 2009 they settled with the government for a cool $298 million, not to mention tax evasion, rate fixing, the list went on even energy manipulation, this has been going on for years and into hundreds of billions in charges, yet no jail time.  The only common factor is the hundreds of millions in fines paid per charge.

Is the FCA truly relying on the banks to have a moral outlook towards the criminal acts taking place? Or will real action take place? Investors and traders get weary when money handling is exposed the way it has been in the UK, with elections taking place in May of next year we should see many other scandals and hidden truths fueling the candidates arguments trying to sway votes.

Should we be following Iran is this fight sentencing our guilty bankers to death? Instead they let the GBP die along with faith in the financial system. When you cant trust the system you invest elsewhere and where better than the USD. Don’t get me wrong I defiantly don’t think our bankers are doing anything less of the described above, but I can bet they will hide it a little better.

FED Found Economy Dead

Positions:Long GLD June 19th, 2015 114.00 calls. Paid $6.80, currently $7.95, with a gain of +16.91%
Buy Gold $1191.50, Currently at $1219.70 for a gain of 2.36%

The strength in the economy is not measured buy the market stocks; it is the FEDS balance sheet that rates it.

 Not any branch of government, agency even president can overrule the actions by the FED. The FED it is an independent agency, in fact they have there own rules and standard.  It may seem that the FED is this secret agency, comparable to the Illuminati or the Masons, with all these numbers, statistics, with many things to hide.

On the contrary Rosengren has published federal funds rate targets. He also released limited and edited minutes of committee meetings, along with announcements of interest rate targets, and how long they see those targets remaining.  On Rosengren’s “path to transparency” he even let an outside companies Deloitte & Touche along with one of there own inspectors mandated by congress to audit the fed.

 Of course, who knows how fourth coming they truly were with their information, what relationship these “good ol' boys” have with one another, and to what end the FEDs statements can be manipulated in an audit. The government and the people want into the FED. Now the chairman of the FED Ben Bernanke testifies regularly before Congress, and the public, quite possibly to just ease the media and people from pushing their way in. The FED may just be misunderstood by many, some see it as a essential need to stabilize currency, others see it as doing much more harm than good.  Charles Plosser president of the FED argues, “They don’t have the tools to wind down the stimulus”. If they don’t, then what is the “Doomsday Book”?  Will it ever be released?  The global economy should have collapsed in 2011, the book has been implemented and used since 2008, could it have so much to do with just why it didn’t?

The FED could just be the most sophisticated money-laundering organization on earth ever. They do not want us to know what is in that book.. Could it be page after page of ways to rule the world? Chapter 24.  Ensure a nasty untreatable bio-weapon or virus that will make its way to the U.S. In the panic, print more money.  Chapter 20 to make gold illegal and nationalize assets.  I personally think there is only one word in the book: RUN.

Keep it on the LOW, LOW

Most traders think the market will turn around if they hold on to their positions. For the most part, they are correct and successful at doing so. Traders do have a technique; they have a strategy and rely on all kinds of information, trends, and data, fundamentals a trader will preach. You can waste days, even years reading traders tips, and articles. These are all opinions; you cannot predict environmental or political changes. You could follow the scripted rules of trading such as. “Keep the money and the trades moving, find a strategy and stick to it,buy low, sell high, and my personal favorite, rule number one, make money, rule number two repeat number one”. Most trading information is just peoples ideas of what will happen, and charts are only a small part of the art form that is trading. Right now, the metals market is volatile and bearish and trending downward, silver had hit its lowest in four years. Is it an oversold market? Is it the suppression by the central bankers? Volume is shifting the market and playing a major role in all of this. Looking at the charts, there seems to be no indication change is in sight for metals. Even looking at a sixty-minute chart, where you can see the fist indication of any movement, none is in sight. My thoughts are timing truly is everything, let us say you have the ability to move the market, and not really play by the Comex rules. We know certain times of the day traders are much more active. 11 am is the highest; the lowest is around 5 pm East Coast time. The lowest time is when less people trading, so it takes less volume to move the market. Looking at volume should be key to making your move. Volume can indicate the hidden agenda of the “rule breakers” they may be playing on something we do not see. The public will react to the volume change. Humans they know are surprisingly predictable, you can bet the billions of dollars spent yearly on the psychology and sociology of marketing teams will guide those major players’ trades. They are not just trading in the market they are trading the conformity of human nature not. As a trader, you need to look at all the information out there differently. Say you are an art critic, a chart would be an abstract painting anyone could interpret it in so many ways, seeing all the different aspects and beauty in the way it looks. However, “market activity” is what it is, it does not lie, that is a huge indicator on what move to make. Volume con be controlled to an extent, for instance, we do not see the low in gold that we do in silver. Indicating the buyers are refusing to let the sellers take it lower, you can see this by looking at the volume. This is only some information; let us not get ahead of ourselves by believing that the downward trend is at an end. All this shows is the buyers won this round. Holding short at 1309.88 current price 1217, with a gain of 7% Fxmade2trade

Don't trim the HEDGE too close America

Could it be real yields, interest rates, and crude oil, have less to do with the gold than is believed. Gold as a hedge with inflation? The gold price chart varies year to year compared to all sorts of inflation data and seems completely random in the patterns. What moves Gold? Gold is much more appealing when the price is high and seems to be a major “time trend” so along with all the coloration's and charts people put above their own personal strategy, are they looking at the bigger picture. Most think gold is the most unproductive asset one could hold. Could it be that gold is just valuable because people “think” it to be? That people just want to value something, anything, might as well be gold. Could it be that it truly is a natural limited resource, that will again up, way past $2000 oz. in late 2015? When paper money and bonds and futures all fall gold is a physical asset that has been used for thousands of years worldwide. Well I will buy into the idea that the dollar will fall, and possibly the U.S. collapses completely, so I guess I am buying into American human nature and the workforce failing, with no faith in the U.S. government at all, call me a cynic if you want. We only own 5% of all the global gold reserves and it baffles me that our monetary policies are the fuel to the worldwide price. When the over saturation of paper gold get's torn to pieces you better hold on to your physical metals and keep bulling on my friends, looking ahead of course. Holding short at 1309.88, Current price 1221 a gain of 6.7%

Ali, Ali, Ali debt we're free...

38% to $93.89 a share, Alibaba’s worth $231.44 billion, Chinese e-commerce giant is now worth much more than many of the large companies in the USA While Ma said… Alibaba will be bigger than the USA's Wal-Mart, but the massive retailer is still worth $248 billion, he is close. While Google at $403 billion still ahead. Still leading Johnson & Johnson has a cap at $305 billion. Warren Buffett’s conglomerate at $339 billion. Wells Fargo is still up and worth more than Alibaba, with a market cap of $279 billion However… Ali is bigger Than proctor and gamble, P&G’s $229 billion. AT&T with a low of $184 billion. Coca cola even is only worth $184 billion. JPMorgan Chase as we know is lower than Ali at $230 billion. Even face book at $203 billion. Ali and the growing strong economy of consumers is Asia has just begun if we can switch positions with them as the biggest exporter to the ever-changing economy and make china our major consumer than the US may have hope.

Don't turn down the volume! REVERSE IT

How the Scottish impacted the world… besides war hero’s, architects and engineers, amazing poets and well as we know Shakespeare made Macbeth a infamous king. They invented the television and the telephone. The nation’s finances had been so bad in 1694 Scotland co founded the Bank of England. They even invented the first waterproof fabric, and rubber wheel. Now they have helped make the USD strong as people still afraid to invest in the EUR, GBP, even the JPY is at a low, with the vote a big No people may start having faith in those currencies again. The USD is also staying strong because of other volume factors. What I mean by this is that when the US stock market is up and the USD is strong people want to invest and traders feel safe for another day or week sometimes even minutes of safety are everything to a traders calls. But is the US stock market up? To most newbie’s they would say yes. This is when volume comes into play, the S&P is up but that has only 500 stocks, the DOW 30 and NASDAQ 100 so when you think of all the US stocks and see all of them in green then you look at the nations debt, and other attributing negative factors. Make sure your looking at stocks that are like RUSSELL 2000 not just the few that volume moves.Watch out for those reverse signals with the USD,Gold may be on the rise but for now still holding short at 1309.88 current price 1216.00 a gain of 7.1% Fxmade2trade

Vote for the fall of Gold

Fx and metal traders seem to be waiting for the Scottish vote even more so than the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Many people are skeptical of the vote having any impact on gold at all, but I foresee a whole other change coming. We did see a little rise but not by much. If the fear of the ERO and GBP fuels the USD in the market, the USD could get stronger and we could see a huge drop in gold this week with today’s vote. Holding short at 1309.88 current price 1225.00 gain of 6.4% Fxmade2trade

China "BEARS" All

Since late 2012 to gain the confidence, popularity and trust of the people the powerful communist Chinese government decides to issue anti-graft and anti-extravagance measures. This created such a massive change for how and what is being produced and imported that a systematic chain reaction in other markets such as property, Gifts, travel and now all automobiles purchased by government must be domestic branded vehicles so the stream of Bentley, BMW and Mercedes are no longer allowed as government vehicles. Even liquor and spending on events are limited Xinhua News Agency reported that all levels of government will be barred from using government funds to organize extravagant galas staged with expensive celebrities and performances. Officials will punish organizers of “expensive or wasteful celebratory events.” Ah yes and now we have seen first hand gold declining and this ban is campaigned to lead in to 2017. according to a report by Bain & Co., China’s growth in luxury spending dropped from 7 percent in 2012 to just 2 percent in 2013, the slowest pace since 2000. The Hurun Report, a publication that chronicles the wealthy in China, said in its 2014 Luxury Consumers Survey that compared to 2013, 25 percent fewer respondents plan to give a “very expensive gift” (worth $826 or more) at Chinese New Year. Additionally, since Xi’s austerity campaign, China’s high-end hotels have experienced considerable drops in their occupancy rates. Before the campaign, government bookings accounted for more than 40 percent of sales for business hotels. Now, business has fallen by more than 50 percent. Now we cannot forget many things attributed to these statistics, and money is still being spent, the Chinese are still spending and spending a lot. The money is for now outside of china and with more focus on strengthening the middle class in China this just means investors need to look at what moves the middle class and focus on that. Just so I am being clear I can’t foresee the middle class buying up large chunky gold watches, and Cartier jewelry in the near future. India will once again be the main consumer of gold and with the Diwali festival in October, physical gold is being smuggled in at an alarming rate, as well as the fear of the Scottish independence fueling fear, explains the buying spree of physical gold coins in the U.K. Once again and don’t let the statistics run your trading, much of the information is altered and the Reserve Banks withhold information and Central Banks foresee intention of consumers, and traders. In fact the Chinese have been trying to gain the upper hand in the pricing gold, and away from London for some time and it seems their efforts may pay off. For now, gold is bearish and I am holding short at 1309.88 current price 1223.00 gain of 6.6% Fxmade2trade

Yellow fever turned green

Is the USD a crutch for traders? On the other hand, is it fear? With Asia’s ever expanding economy and the growing emphasis on strengthening the middle class it is somewhat surprising that the consumer demand for gold is so low. Or is the demand still as strong but all the restrictions on imports that the government and the Reserve bank has put on China and India in the last year. The two countries that are the largest consumers of gold, are with the same demand but their hands are tied. This seems to be the theme world wide with so many factors swaying the people from political to the strong equity markets taking investors away from buying gold, however many central banks will still need to buy gold to secure a viable reserve currency. Traders seem to be afraid of the ERO, for a while all the political turmoil in Russia hadn’t caused any shift in trades but we now see that after a few months it fell dramatically. Now with Scotland’s vote just in a few days the GBP is suffering as well. The strength of the USD seems to remain a safe haven for investors as of now. However with The unforeseen realization is that as the U.S. dollar gets stronger the price of international goods gets cheaper and become more enticing for the U.S. to buy overseas. This can cause a major turn of events for the USD and with low domestic demand, we then will be keeping our USD in international waters instead of on U.S. soil. The U.S. economy will be right in the red again with the USD weak and the competition of the ERO, GBP and JPY strong. Holding short at 1309.88 current price 1235.00 gain of 5.7% Fxmade2trade

In the INTEREST of GOLD

So my last post was about the correlation of crude oil and gold, war and location. Within all trades many correlations exist, its good to know and understand them, so you then can position yourself correctly. One of these correlations is the rise and fall of interest rates and the rise and fall of gold, since gold has no interest, it dips when interest rates rise and peaks as the interest rates fall, so that would indicate that you buy gold when rates are low and sell when rates are high. Because this is an accepted correlation, the central banks are watching the market for indication showing prolonged inflation, and have policies that could reverse this correlation. In fact the we saw this opposite reaction when rates rose the price of gold peaked in Europe and in India in 2011, this was an exception in decades of historical data. Many other factors can influence the bullion market, fear seems to move it the most, and that no one can predict. Holding short at 1309.88 current price 1240.00 gain of 4.6%

OBAMA AND THE GOLDEN FLEECE

The correlation between gold and crude oil is no secret this has been a connection that many traders have accepted and used to hedge their trades for years. In the last year we see oil at the lowest it has been since April of 2013, with gold following close behind it. Obama’s campaign and determination to lift the oil ban that has been set for decades couldn’t have come at a more convenient time, the major countries that are producing crude oil are in a crisis and need U.S. aid. With Asia and the U.S. having the worlds largest oil consumption what better way to dip our hands and gain Intel on these resources’ indirectly. Obama has already cracked the door to exportation of oil and has yet to fling it open completely but when he does and it seems he will expect the price of gold to follow. Holding short at 1309.88 current price 1255.72 gain of 4.1%

Put'in all your eggs in one basket

With the tension still building between Russia and Ukraine, we are finally starting to feel the backlash of the war that we had not seen thus far. People have been bailing on the euro and buying up the USD, not because the USD is strong with a solid economy, it is the fear of Vladimir Putin’s unpredicted moves and the issues with the ECB. Since the beginning of the year the euro has lost over 6% against the dollar and now the USD has been gaining in ways that no one could have predicted surpassing the GBP and the JPY. Many different things can influence the strength or weakness of the USD but one thing is proven as the USD gets stronger the price of gold is declining. Holding short at 1309.88 current price 1255.50 gain of 4.1%