GDP weather you believe it or not

Can we really blame the gross domestic product reports on the weather?

The U.S. did just that when it blamed the 100 billion lost on snow early this year. China is now following suit of the bazaar claim that cool weather is the reason for the outcome and higher levels of activity growth in the recent outcome of the GDP data. Seems odd to me considering that the pollution in China is so intense you cannot even see the sun at times.  Since when does economic data rely on weather? To better understand this let us look at how we see and get the GDP overall. We have to understand the factors of the data research.

The System of National Accounting (SNA) and the Material Product System (MPA) that was used in the early soviet union, still used by some countries as an alternative to the United Nations System of National Accounts (UNSNA) or (SNA) that focuses on "free market" prices. This is supposed to provide data of economic activity on an international level. Countries cannot provide the same data, it is impossible, the country that invests billions into research, is not going to be the same as a country that cannot be assessed because of geographical factors, or socio-political instability. Some governments will not allow surveys of all kinds to take place. Many factors prevent the “same” data from being entered. The input-output levels can be highly manipulated due to the standard. The UN cannot enforce the same standard. Since it differs from country to country so there are often discrepancies, quarterly and yearly revisions, but as long as they provide sufficient data on national accounts the UN will fit it into its standard, all the other accounts can be reworked up to UN standard. If you look UN Yearbook, under detailed tables the data over decades instead of yearly you will see a trend change significantly. Studies in economics have shown that even the “free market prices” are truly regulated and administered prices in Western countries.

Many people do not even know that the MPA exists. The MPA that uses administered prices, measures the output of “material goods” tangible products, in comparison to “services”, usually in national accounts, the data collected is only to measure the “value” of outputs produced. Comparing the MPS and SNA is how China determines the GDP.

Keeping up with the Keynesians

Positions:Long GLD June 19th, 2015 114.00 calls. Paid $6.80, currently $7.20, with a gain of +5.9%
Buy Gold $1191.50, Currently at $1207.60 for a gain of 1.3%

October is said to be the most frightening of all months, not just for costumes and Halloween, fear fest, etc. October is frightening most of all for traders, this is the month when the market has crashed in the past, including in 1927, 1987 and 2008. It’s no secret that this time of year is a tricky one (no pun intended), many past reports show even with the decline of S&P and large-cap index companies, it also shows October to be one of the best performing with returns at 10.9%. Personally, I don’t see the month having as much to do with the fear in the market as what is taking place in the geopolitical and global economic realm.

            I feel redundant saying it again, but now that the economic data is out, I can finally stop preaching about how the dollar is weak. The previous reports were wrong, the USD along with our economy is on the brink of collapse. Many people have lost so much faith and respect in the USD, that eventually they will turn to a greater currency. Could Harry Dent be accurate when he invested in Australia the way he has, will that be the better economy to live and invest in? Keynesian economics is dead and gone, now if they could print out deeds, we would at least have some collateral instead of just a mountain of debt. Even then, we would be entrapped in mortgages. There really is no room for growth at this point, we as a nation are tapped out due to the depletion of cheap energy, and an array of greedy puppet masters fueling the people and the market with blatant lies.

QE isn’t going to end just yet, not with the negative interest rates in the Euro and its uncertainty with investors, not to mention the bail-outs. The USD is only the lesser in all the evils, not truly a safe haven for foreign investors, it is just has the illusion it is. The capital we had from the colonial era is gone and we have piggybacked on societies’ that had our “new” technologies and ideas. With the huge entitlement outlays to fund, the U.S. will have to keep borrowing and printing, creating more and more debt.

Maybe I could have been spot on with my prediction that the manipulated rise of the dollar was to bring down the price in gold. It would be interesting to see how much bullion JP Morgan is hoarding along with the other owners of the economy. With the “revised” corrected data out on the housing and economics of the U.S, I am shocked to see just a small change in PM’s I would have thought that gold would be skyrocketing with the information released. 

Did I mention the COMEX manipulation? Let’s touch a little on that, traders are to believe that technical analysis and PMs is totally out. It’s not, just learn from the manipulators, they know what traders will do. It’s like getting into the mind of the puppet masters, Central Banks, the FED, etc. Volatility in the market is high in October with record fluctuations happening even higher. Singapore’s holiday and the Chinese market being closed for a week have affected the slow rise in PMs, however when it opens Wednesday and the new SGE reports come in, my prediction in gold skyrocketing has just begun.  

"All the perplexities, confusion and distresses in America arise not from defects in the constitution…, as much from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation" — John Adams, August 25, 1787.