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Showing posts with label economic data. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economic data. Show all posts

Friday, April 24, 2015

Jingoistic Jingoism's

Media Bred Eugenics, Part 2

One can become consumed watching the News and world events unfold in this bizarre new world.  We are witnessing change on a grand scale and evolution in every aspect at a historic rate.  Evolution is a strange thing; I am not speaking in terms of Darwinism the conventional form of evolution such as, over time living organisms develop.  I am speaking of evolution chemically, scientifically, mathematically and technically the evolving patterns and changing maneuvers. The general need and sense for development and change.  Even the most skeptic of Darwin has witnessed his theories playing out through time, “survival of the fittest” or the “natural selection”, if his theories are accurate we at some point will have to encounter a “test” the test of all tests some may survive others will not.  
     We are developing our minds, all of us, we are learning at a rapid rate.  A new born babies brain triples in size the first two years of life and continues growing till about age twenty. Keep in mind all the cells and neurons we will ever need in our lifetime are already there, the growth comes from the connections or synapses between the cells.  We are adapting and learning in our new habitat of technology and media.  Billions of dollars are spent on figuring out the best way to learn and how we can learn more, faster a superior way to learn.  Media has been a great way for information to be received by the masses.  With all the information, we now have on our brain and the hundreds of years spent researching the mind had paid off. No other time than right now has our new discoveries opened so many doors to development and research on our behavior and emotion.  Knowing just what information changes our behavior, emotion or action, is the research that is so interesting and profitable. The media has been a great way to change all, so great we do not even know they are changing us..   
When I see the Greek problems playing out wondering to myself how America would let them make alliances with Russia and the scenario of a war with Turkey, or something involving NATO perhaps ISIS invading around Greece that brings in NATO somehow.  Then I see Obama with the new and young influential Italian Prime Minister avoiding some questions and topics altogether.  I question why?  Is the US showing and proving we that have at least one allies left?  When Russia and China appear to be cutting the US off and out of the loop completely, and us with the fear of nationalizing a new currency cutting off the worlds reserve the USD, then we see news on the pacific trade open up, or how great an investment in the Shanghai exchange would boost anyone’s portfolio.  On the other hand, is the Federal Reserve so broke that they are making bets on the volatility of the Shanghais market?
 We know what they are feeding us; it is just what we will bite on that is being bet on.  Is perception of what is being shown us the key?
The 9/11 war on terror brought new ways to instill fear in every household thanks to the media (not to mention ways to infiltrate and control the masses with an express pass to enforce our “patriot act”.)  To add some extra panic they include a scale that would show the level of terrorism risk day to day in a color system so even kids could keep up, broadcasting every second along with every horror experienced.  Whatever theory you believe it is most likely true or a part of the truth behind the reason or conspiracy, as to just what exactly took place on 9/11, if you read my past work, you know where I stand.  The aftermath of the “event” (attack? Not so much) was just as traumatic then as it is today.  What it has done to this country, is irreparable.  It caused stereotypes and hatred with Arab Americans and mistrust among innocent groups.  It created fear of the unknown the “what if” and this fear opened doors for the FBI, CIA, and NYPD to allow and enforce blatant stereotyping and discrimination against the Muslim community. Fear of the Unknown, and the “what if” factor. This fear and anti-Muslim behavior, violence and mistrust forced many people to give up their faith, fear of being profiled, or segregated as a Muslim extremist.  Mosques were burned, families beaten and murdered. This was not the first time fear was used to paralyze our thoughts and control our emotions, and it wont be the last. While Americans mourned and panicked staying indoors, glued to the news, afraid to fly or go to the local store. The reality is, Americans are one hundred times more likely to die from a homicide, than a terrorist attack, or even more likely to get killed by our own  cities police unit, than a Muslim terrorist.  While terror struck the nation through media, the authorities fueled the fear and rewrote laws while the masses were too afraid to second-guess our great country.  Media drained all it could out of the tragedy and pain. The majorities of the American people are not familiar with eastern history , let alone ours. People knew little about the Middle East or Arab groups, the religion or countries.  This was a pre. Smart phone time,  most people still assumed and believed all the media and myths on our trusted news networks, believing they are true and non biased with real factual information, not just to push the market for a common interest.


  The news and our government keeps pushing us to be more divided, less communal, in turn, less powerful as a group.
Once upon a time (1983) our news media  was controlled by approximately fifty different corporations. Today it is a  private interest owned, by only six corporations. These six are powerful corporations, they do not just own the news or media they own production studios, television networks, newspapers, magazines, movie studios, anything from web sites to music labels. They have control over it all these huge six entities are not just rich beyond belief they are selling a priceless item… control. People pay for control. Social control has been around for sometime, and has been used even longer than one may think, the first use was in c. 515 BC that we know of, “The Rise of Darius to The Persian Throne”, then “The Arthashasta” c.350-283 BC, and of course, the Romans used it c.59 BC - 17 AD. It spread during the Reformation in ways never seen before with the printing press in Europe and there were thirteen American colonies that had specialized on topic for the interest of the Patriots and not so fond of the Loyalists, playing a major role in the demand for independence. It goes on continually throughout time.
Even the word propaganda has been turned into a negative, in its original sense was positive and helpful neutral and useful for information. Edward Bernays “the father of public relations” and regarded as one of the hundred most influential Americans of the twentieth century. Bernays also said, “The public’s democratic judgment was not to be relied on”. One of the most prominent political writers Walter Lippmann sat together on a US public information committee Bernays pioneered the PR industry by using social sciences and adding psychology this  popularized Freud ideas, mainly group psychology. Barclay's’ actually wrote the book on psychological manipulation, literally in 1928, “Propaganda” he even stated that, “the manipulation of public opinion was a necessary part of democracy”. He also wrote, “Manipulation ones opinion” in 1928, and states, “a technique has been developed and applied”. Indeed it has who we are what we want need how we love what we think is love it has all been predetermined for us. Not like worm wholes repeating our lives, no they are using us all working for the powers that be. So we become aware and watch learn take the “red pill” while the “sheep” take the “blue pill”.
 I have seen more and more shows and news pumping us up while we are in the hypnotic state of brainwashing watching some great new show and then another and a common theme arises every change of shows brings a “NEW THREAT” to you! Your household, the kids, the earth (the one thing that is real)... never the less a common “trend” in major shows. Like, perhaps… women in power? Seem familiar. Recently I see survival shows a lot of them, and a negative veering and lack of trust towards the mercenary groups. In the long run, the military saves the day, not the survivalists or redneck leading a city with an AK, no they are depicted as bad people and guns as an evil threat to families and always shown in the wrong hands. 
My perception could be totally off, or… they are trying to sway us, disarm us willingly, and place the idea in our heads not go rise up against the government when the time comes to, and it will. When all the people see the big Ponzi scheme, the government and barker cartels have bestowed on us just to line their pockets. They are desensitizing us to the future n new world order, all those zombie shows are just junkies ready to eat your face off when they Close America off to all other countries and resources and China has bought up all our good land and energy. All that will be left is Anarchy, Drugs, liquor and guns…our knowledge and empathy remains. I went a little too far there; however, the “what if” or disaster looming is each individual’s perception. So I will continue with the “rant” of new world order. I do not know why with all violence that we are exposed to, and desensitize by, why aren’t we just publicly hanging people that have wrecked America?... Raise Nixon and flank him till we go back to gold. Bernanke burned at the stake, or pitting him in cage against lions or Bears and Bulls, loose in some coliseum or a dome like a bad mad max reenactment! Yellen and Draghi as Master Blaster…Michelle Obama as Tina Turner, now I have to post the video clip of that.

I could be way off. Perhaps they have a plan, and it is for everyone to unite, peace love and freedom, America Land the free, rich happy and healthy. They will have every person rise above middle class, and issue high tax for the rich they will even take a ten percent cut for just one year. Every banker and government personal will do it, just to fund low-income schools and include theater and art classes or days that they cut. Sad thing is they could… for every school in the nation… for the next fifty years. The pessimist I am, I just kind of lean towards them being greedy and see them more or less wiping out the middle class setting up their life in luxury while we the 99% just hope… as they manipulate us to believe if we do what is being said, we need to… and in time everything will be ok, someday.
  Now we know the public perception is the focus for swaying us through media, how the public responds to information given is the key. The concern in this is finding the concurrent high points of some information then when other information being introduced. This information is what advertisers and the powers that control all seek. What action will cause a reaction, most of all just what will the reaction be? The public’s reaction is what the big boys bet on, profit from, and invest in. The media has become the ultimate advertising tool pushing products and bias information, then acting as rivals while supporting the same globalist organizations pushing a product. Thirty years ago, The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director Dave McGowan stated (who also was murdered shortly after he stated) “The Central Intelligence Agency owns everyone and any significance in the major media”. The CIA has advanced in every way since then. One can only imagine what the CIA could have control over with the new technological advances combined with physics and science, biology, and chemistry, the breakthroughs have been historical recently and keep growing  The list could go on and on. Knowledge of Humanity and the way we think and act are mapped out; we have learned so much about our cells and body, and our brain finding why and how we do what we do. 
We still do not know so much about the mind, humans are complex, and though most behavior is predictable, some is not. the aspect of free will and unpredictability’s of sadness, empathy, and  love, anger, hope and lust are emotional and each of us express these differently. Fear however, is a much more predicable human response, more of a fight or flight formula to manipulate us with. Tragedy sells, the collapse, ruin, and war, disease, money, the loss of the hopeful gain, false reassurance, and outright lies, all fed to us in a multitude of ways, redirecting or behavior to serve their greedy interests. The stories we have been told all our lives may hold some truth, more a piece of the puzzle or a guide to the truth. The tales of mythology, religion, even poets, and art have altered our perception throughout time. Even fables, songs, and fairy tales can been depicted in many ways unveiling racism, sexism, and control, etc. The common thread in all manipulation is, good and evil, heaven and hell, white and black, these all have two sides to every story, all the things we have been told and learned are depicted and swayed by the storyteller, we will never find the whole truth, time has buried most information with the motives and greed mankind constantly seeks .
  Truth and fiction become irrelevant when profit or desperation becomes involved. 
H.G. Wells wrote about social engineering though sports and back then, people may have thought he was crazy when he wrote of a tribal system that was needed for men, engrained in us primitively a need for a tribe and leader, an Alpha male. As the emerging expert class arose, man would be more disengaged from what you would call a tribe or his own destiny. Sports though radio and adding a stadium in every city gave man the outlet he was subconsciously seeking, in the hypnotic state of a new cultural industry. The Soviet Union even had what was called a culture industry. The actors and directors of media and film were called the "cultural leaders", because they could control the public. This was the psychology behind control because humans have a need to belong; a need to be liked wanted and accepted by our peers, we are easily programmed by a scientific dictatorship. We have been programmed as if machines manipulated so much we cannot even determine the difference between “real wealth” and what we are programmed to believe “real wealth” is. When did owning even leasing a Bentley become a better investment than land, education, family, or medicine, even free will? The pressure to have material possessions, a bigger house another car or truck, a better life, is not just a pressure, this has been instilled in us so much that now advertisements are making fun of the blatant brainwashing of these unobtainable social status.
 For the 99% what we see the lavish lifestyles lived is an unobtainable social structure and status, it is a distraction for the masses, something to strive for and keep going, set up so you remain unfulfilled and keep working and spending. They want you to spend not save that is not what our economic structure is based on. They want and need you to max out your credit take a mortgage out, even a second or a third, all so, you will not have any true assets and you will keep paying on that interest. Media does more than take your money for various purposes it drives you steering you and guiding your next step.
 I see more and more people taking the “red pill”, seeing the media for what it really is a tool to control us. People have learned that investigative journalism is just associated with different specifics, not truth. What the media says and shows you may just be a movie set or even actors, even the energetic newscaster pushing a new company, you now may know is their sponsor. Media is a tool and like everything have two sides and two ways of looking at it and two ways to use it. Alternatively, the public can use it to their advantage as well. The information is out there, just some codes will be easer to crack, others much harder. An informational puzzle and all the pieces, what they are discussing and selling or buying, it is the history and relationships all of it is out there. However, it’s more “why” they are broadcasting it, selling it, or buying it, the true history not what is told to you the real relationships between people. 
The public is waking up to the fact we have been living in a nation opposite of everything we were told America is and what it stood for, the opposite of what we have learned in school from teachers, parents, peers. Our history has been rewritten to conform societies and create a mass of human machines to program. . A false nation built with blood and greed, manipulation and power. Our history like our nation is false, made up, altered by fake governments, fake rules, fake leaders hand picked by Oligarchs and bankers in a fake democracy. Our fake judiciary system with its fake laws designed so though Oligarchs, bankers and government can rob you blind without due process or even court orders, then the powers that be can rob them. Our Freedom? Fake, our amendments? Falsified, and rewritten, our authority Fake, a nation with the backbone of our proud constitution reworded and altered so they can serve there own control and strip us of power and our true rights even our own choice. What do we have left that is real or ours truly? Knowledge and the right to bear arms and defend ourselves (for now). There are many upsides in our new god we call media in this lawless run nation. Knowledge is power, and we are curious creatures with instincts for survival to protect our legacy though our children.

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Bred Media Eugenics




Government through propaganda has been brain washing us in various ways, feeding us lies and keeping us just comfortable enough to stay unaware of the hypocrisy run nation, while they reap the benefits and manipulate us.  We are in a new age and we have a new idle, the Media, and the powers that be are racking what we do all the time, on our private personal time.  They are fitting us in to a particular demographic ideal for marketing and swaying us to buy, sell, look at, and even feel.  Big brother has gone to a whole new level; they even release endorphins when you walk into a specific store, designing ways to enhance your shopping experience so you will spend more.  We are a consumer-based nation.  It is so specific they can predict an estimated date will need and purchase certain items.  Billions are spent a year just to find out what kind of bath tissue you buy.  Think of every time you search the web, every site you search, your face book,  twitter even your images are loaded in to informational software categorizing your life and predicting your future, profiling what you post, look at and you every privet aspect, the thousands of external factors.  It is invasive in many ways to know that advertizing and manipulation is becoming tailored to fit just me.  We see this in new technology all the expanding and overwhelming unimaginable advancements, the ability to use robots to achieve what man cannot.         
 These advancements have caused people to become obsessed with technology and because these robots are so advanced, they are able to penetrate our lives on a subconscious level, these advancements as wonderful as they may be have massive side effects.  Information and knowledge breed power and control and those combined breed money.  In the wrong hands technology can do more than we can even imagine, the most outlandish, bazaar, even evil ideas or thoughts, the darkest places hiding in ones mind, technology can enhance, bring to life and fulfill those ideas.  It has been in the wrong hands throughout its existence evolving faster than humanity ever could, with many great minds combined it like us evolved learning and serving its masters faithfully.  Its has been bred to control the masses we are just slaves to the masters on a grand scale.  It controls us day to day, influencing us, pushing us, we just assume it is our choice our false free will.  We are desensitized to the subconscious rape-taking place and we seem so unaware.  Google can now predict the ways the market will move due to what searches are entered.  They are marketing our thoughts and fears taking our freedom and making us comfortable seeking the unknown.
 It almost could be the greatest social experiment ever.  I am not even touching the NSA or FBI spying on us without a court order, breaking everything America stands for.  This is just a small area in the mass amounts of media manipulation when it comes to advertising and marketing data.  Many people never read the applications you download or sites you use, you sign a waiver when you click on, download, or sign into those sites.
 Nothing makes me smile more than watching blatant yellow journalism on the morning news.  News has become a fundamental tool for the powers that be, a true way to steer the money.  While few see the big picture, they will never research the correlation between specific people or money that rules us all.  The corrupt ways of what some call a democracy.  I have read some amazing theories about what is to come, 2015, 2016, and every other year.  For the most part, I am pessimistic when it comes to the US and the out come of us or hope for humanity.  In turn, the information I research tends to be the same story repeatedly, “this year it will be the end of…”  “The world,” “the market,” “jobs,” “schools.”  Or it is…  “This time it will be the worst…”  “The biggest bubble ever!”  “The most catastrophic!” and “this time it’s like no other”…Now of course they push…  “Things will never be the same.”  The theories can be incredible, some very interesting and some just make you realize how uneducated many people are, for the most part they all have the same element, Fear.  It maybe brought to you by the (in a game show voice)…The USA, FED, Russia, Toyota, wait I got it, Tesla!  KGB, China, The DONG or kittens, Iran or it is possibly Alien government with unicorn technology! Fact is, it won’t matter who or what is doing the pushing, it will only matter why you are being pushed in that direction, what the final goal would be.  Therefore, we evolve, expanding our mind relearning what we once knew with a whole different type of perception.  understand this is like a game for the major entities and like any game some of the players are key the to winning, most are useless bench warmers, a small part of the game as a whole the bigger picture for the team has a audience and owners and that where the money is, because money is the win.  Even when a game is rigged, some they lose well the other won that is the beauty of it all, there is always a winner.  You just have to watch see if they threw it, why, who and what that benefited in the long run.  You will find the major players, the teams are not big but there are many, so learn the game, find what team you are on and watch closely at how their game is run, stick with a strategy, not just your own but look for the end game, get the team’s strategy because some teammates have and know the winning moves.

Thursday, February 5, 2015

The allure of self-confidence (jpy)

     Hello,
As awaited the Japanese news was released and helped our trades. Usd/Jpy didn't move immediately in our direction, but sometimes moves play out over the course of a few hours as traders figure out what they want to do and the manipulators have chance to run those positions.
     Japanese purchasing of foreign bonds had increased from 44.2bln yen to 675.2bln yen, foreign stocks had increased from 382.1bln yen to 457.9bln yen. As for their purchasing of Japanese bonds, that dropped from 236.3bln yen to 70.2bln yen. Purchasing of Japanese stocks dropped from 464.8bln yen to 104.bln yen. Wow! the purchasing of foreign bonds increased +1428%. That blows me away, and the purchasing of domestic bonds and stocks fell an average of -74%. In a simplistic view of this, a layman's view, I would say this shows their doubt in the stability of their economy. I haven't delved too deep into the structure of their finances, so they could be balancing it all out in some way, but as for trading it on a time frame of a couple days, I think most traders are looking at the currency the way I stated. From the time of this economic news, the Usd/Jpy has moved up about +0.17% as I type this. The pair also seems to be unable to find a direction and wants to oscillate back and forth across the 117.45, ranging between 117.10 to 117.70
     For tomorrow we have non-farm payrolls and unemployment, so we'll go ahead and hold to see what happens then.

Have a good evening and good luck,
Professor Chaney

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

"State of Division" Obama's 2015 pitch


      I do believe that behind closed doors the squad of political show dogs of our government are all together alike, a league of corrupt teammates stroking each other ego's and pushing for a common purpose. For the most part they all get along and give a certain amount of respect to another when and where it is due . However, after Obama State of Union address last night big government appears to be more divided than ever.
     The frustration and hatred was tangible by the newly formulated republican clique. John Boehner sat behind Obama awkwardly, refusing to applaud or stand. Showing obvious disagreeable facial expressions while holding back eye rolls as the president spoke. The pretentiousness of Obama's ego seemed to be fueled by the energetic applause of the Democrats. Biden was Obama's cheerleader, hanging on every word with nods of approval constantly showing his suppot. Obama used a tactless approach of fabricating the facts and commending himself with admiration by exaggerating the positive aspects of our nation that his administration took credit for. It would be wonderful to think all that pazazz and energy  Obama showed would have come during his presidency, flooding back into our nation writing new bills, passing, vetoing and changing laws all to better our nation and people. The sad fact is much of what he said was just plain inaccurate.
      He brought up how close we are to closing Guantanamo Bay. They have been trying to shut down Guantanamo Bay since 2008, spending millions on each individual there and even more on trying to shut it down. Many anti-American terrorists are proven to be recruited from there. Obama, if you are going to threaten a Veto or executive orders just do it! Jobs for the vet's that come home has been big issue, they fight for our country but when they return can even find a job to support their family. While we are happy to hear about the increase of jobs for our vet's as they return. On the other hand I could bet if we handed them the money we are spending and have spent at Guantanamo it could quite be around a million dollars each. Even if they spent some, if any of the capital it took to get the closing approval through congress. Now that really would be beneficial to them. Obama has majority in the Senate and in the House, he could have closed it many times in his terms. Could you just imagine all that money spent on our vet's and their family's would have given them the reward they deserve, our patriotism would skyrocket out of control, enticing so many people to enlist and fight for our country.
      Obama didn't mention anything about our debt problem and finding a long term solution for it. There wasn't real talk of economic growth and equality.. His points were wonderful and if he was campaigning this would have been a great speech. To be so egocentric while in your last years, enough to say that he set aside more waters and public lands than any president. That is true, however lets focus on the word "waters" because up until last year his four predecessors had set aside more acres than Obama. Even George Bush trumped him. Out of six years the last year Obama expanded the Pacific Remote Islands National Monument from 87,000 to 490,000 square miles. The expansion is mostly water. Any "saving" of our land and setting it aside is a good thing. It just is odd that he did it so fast and the location in mid-ocean doesn't have much fishing, drilling or extraction of underwater resources that the "saving" protects. Making such a bold statement that  "he set aside the most in history" made him look like he had been doing it for years, not just his last. Not to mention that the government can sell them to privet interests, to pay off debt from military or war anytime.
       The power trip continued when the "growing" economy was brought up, smiling as if he didn't know the facts many people sat unmoved knowing the truth. Our median household income is only four percent higher than it was December 2011, when we bottomed out and still almost five percent lower than December 2007, when the recession began. The hourly earning rose 1.7 percent in the last twelve months. Research states that it is still half the rate for achieving a "healthy Economy". New jobs in Internet, technology, media and many mid-level jobs grow in general with the population. We are generating jobs, lower paying jobs that people have to work harder for. There are 1.7million less workers with full time employment than 2007 when the recession began. Since the "end" of the recession, the employment rate has been steady at around two percent, that is barely ahead of inflation. The typical rate for a healthy economy is around four percent so it, still below where we NEED to be. Seven years later and we have not recovered.
      Energy was a big topic and of course we have been working on alternative energy since 1973, fracking was at an all time high until the oil crash, now the Federal Reserve will have to bail out the fracking debt along with oil production debt. We can then blame it on the Earthquakes or something like weather.
      The parties that bankroll both sides all know none of these reforms he is proposing will pass. I would love to believe that he truly cares about the individual at the bottom, and middle class. Obama knows having a republican Congress and Senate will prevent the passing. All the high fives, his statement that "Crisis has Passed". The only thing that has passed is any hope for real economic growth. The worlds media obsessed and just believe what is said, the powers that be keep people blind and comfortable. Besides tax, the reason they made marijuana legal and push prescription drugs is to keep citizens passive high on one drug or another. If  people all knew what is really going on and how corrupt the world really is, whats really coming it would be chaos and instead of investing in the market people would buy guns and gold and stockpiling food and weapons.
     The reality is we went from six trillion to eighteen trillion in debt, yes the yearly "deficit" has been shrinking , the DEBT was never addressed, big difference.

Monday, January 12, 2015

They issued VE ...verbal easing


        Since 2008, employment gains have been declining, and just this year they have started to stabilize, effectively pushing the unemployment down with the solid employment gains.  Gains in employment were the highest this last November than they have been in the last three years.  Online ads for jobs increased, indicating employment gains.  Surveys came back stating that many jobs were available and were much easier to obtain.  The indicators were encouraging in the anticipation of the reports.
The numbers came back and for the most part, they looked good, then they looked a little closer.  For eleven months straight the payroll increases have been up above 200k, those numbers have not been that strong since 1994.  The Economy has generated the strongest number in new jobs since 1994, and showed 50k more than the forecasters predicted.  The economy looks to be positioned for strong growth in 2015.  In fact, the numbers were so good they almost deemed America fully employed by FED standards.   
Despite all the optimism in employment, weak wages took the spotlight and the softness in earnings that fell drastically.  There really is no obvious fundamental factor that can explain the numbers that were reported.  They listed excuses and blamed a “seasonal fluke” in the retail trade sector.  This time they couldn’t directly blame the weather.  Job quality was not good as well, creating disputes as to what exactly these numbers could mean.  Updated adjustments will of course be released further, most likely while some catastrophic event is taking place to distract us, from the outright manipulation of the numbers, as they always do.
 These statistics and reports are just a reason to issue or delay the rise of the FEDs interest rates, or a justification of QE printing to monetize debt.  These numbers and reports can be perceived many different ways.  They have the ability to manipulate what information is presented and how the surveys are handled. The numbers just do not add up.
 We have roughly 47 million people who get food stamps and inflation with food prices continue.  Many people still live paycheck to paycheck, less than three percent of Americans make over 75k.  Jobless claims rose to 299k.  Jobs in the energy sector had the highest number of job cuts since 2012. With a population, around 316 million and 94 million are not in the labor pool how can we be close to fully employed.  America is still in massive debt and the FED has many people waiting to see if they will raise their interest rates.  The verbal easing Yellen keeps spewing has become intolerable.  One person will say they are raising rates is what will happen then the other will say no that we will wait.  The reality is that if they do raise the rates the trillions in bonds, trade derivatives would create a mass of bank runs and the same banks that control the FED wall St. banks would implode.  It would also crush equity markets the many corporations that took massive loans to cover there debt and had to buyback shares.  The impact would be devastating for the main players, most of all the FED would become unable to control the economic conditions.  The FEDs policy is really designed to take wealth from the largest population and has systematically been wiping out the middle class.  They do not really care about the numbers of employment or income they want to keep the current financial system just the way it is.  The FED will protect it’s self and the banks, they know that foreign cash will shrink the long-term rates and they can always print to cover their own debts if need be.

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

ECB Roadside assistance, AAA cant help


ECB Roadside assistance, AAA cant help
Two European Central Bank (ECB) meetings are coming up and traders should take note.  The first is a meeting on January 7 on non-monetary policy, the other a very important meeting is on the monetary policy followed by a press release, and a maintenance period that will last until March 10 to guarantee that the appropriate funds are available for those decisions. Statements and leaks have indicated that the ECB is going to use Quantitative Easing (QE) to purchase an abundance of government bonds.  Alternatively, they would have the central banks purchase so the country or countries individually would take on the risk of amount borrowed or owed separate from the interest.  They could buy bonds that are AAA rated these have little to no risk of default.  The AAA rating is issued by credit rating agencies; these bonds have the highest creditworthiness and guarantee liability.  Only four companies were left with an AAA rating after the financial crises in 2008. It seems over and over we see failed attempts on monetary expansion and all the monetary measures have been used up. They keep trying to offset deflation by printing and borrowing while weakening currency and eroding the economy.
            The ECB declined to comment, however Peter Praet, ECB chief economist had made many indications that these options are what is being considered. The Prospect of more QE has the EUR/USD dropping searching for any support. Wall street is feeling the impact hitting the biggest fall in the last three months. Commodity currencies also felt the panic, and U.S. treasury yields fell, many found a safe haven in the USD and JPY. Between the ECB meetings and the low numbers from Germany and possible withdraw from the Euro by Greece, the Euro has a long road ahead.

Monday, January 5, 2015

They just didn't have enough Greece to make it run properly



In 2012, Ebrahim Rahbari and Willem Buiter CitiGroup’s Chief Analysts came up with the term “Grexit” a blend of Greece, Euro, and Exit.  Following the Financial crisis in Greece it was acknowledged that they might be leaving the Euro, predicting that more money lent would hurt the Euro and neighboring counties and the Grexit would be the only other option than differentiated government bond yields.  In 2012, De la Rue a British money printing company was rumored to have been printing out the fresh drachma, which takes an estimated six months from time of order placement to printing on paper.  These rumors and fear created a nine-month money withdrawing frenzy.  It was estimated that Greek banks deposits fell by thirteen percent constructing a plan to impose control on the movement of money anticipating more panic with upcoming elections.
Convincing the people of Greece to leave the Euro to support a currency that will potentially collapse was not the only challenge.  The economic depression that this would cause would end with slow economic growth for many, not to mention the hardship the Greek citizens would face.  The Deutsche Bank stated in 2010 that Europe accounted for twenty-five percent of world trade; it was the largest trading partner between China and the United States.  Speculation that European stocks would plummet fifty percent and other nation’s bond yields could widen 100 to 200 basis points leaving them unable to service their own sovereign debts.
            The Euro has hit a nine-year low, for many counties and regions unemployment, flat growth rate along with low inflation it seems impossible to reduce the debt levels that would help shift this trend.  The Eurozone is better assembled than it was in 2010, The Eurozone can handle the exit without a massive hit because the privet sector only has about five percent of Greece’s debt, and the government is better equipped with bail out funds ready for such events unlike five years ago.  However, this has nothing to do with the unpredictability of the people, investors, and stability that will directly affect and hurt the Euro and the ECB.
This has become not only a financial matter, it now is highly political.The upcoming elections on January 25 in Greece have sparked some not so inviting tones from France and Germany.  With new prime ministers in Italy and France ready to reform their nations in ways that have gained total support of Germany’s Angela Merkel, who has insisted European-imposed austerity on nations who really need the complete opposite. January will be a hard month for the Euro to regain at strength, too much is uncertain and unanswered. Many questions will be pending on the candidate Alexis Tsipras, who may soon be the youngest Greek leader at the tender age of forty with a left-wing alliance Syriza on his side it seems that they deem to diminish the austerity measures. This threat is creating disorder among Eurozone members. If Tsipras is elected it is not certain that Greece would exit the Euro but it is implied. Could Greece leaving the Euro cause a ripple effect and open Pandora’s Box to many other counties assuming their role?

Thursday, December 4, 2014

Down under, but in the green.

     Since November 28 we have been holding short Nzd/Usd. One would have thought Usd strength had come to an end, but apparently it CAN go on. As is said, the one thing that is limitless is peoples ignorance. The Usd has continued to be used as a reserve of wealth even with all the potential issues within the Usa financially.
     My thoughts are that the Usd is in for a correction, but with the price of brent crude being so low and America being such a huge consumer of petrol, this free money has been reinvested into spending driving up the Indexes and making the US look viable again to outside investors. Usually even with these fundamentals the currencies eventually correct, even if just for a breath.
     With Switzerland voting no (supposedly) on increasing it's gold backing, this did not help in the reversal of Usd's strength. Not that I think that modest of an amount of gold would move anything, but what it did was reinforce the idea that central banks can operate with single digit % holdings. That along with low oil prices keeps the preexisting ideas intact.
     This week there was no data released for Nzd, but there was multiple economic data releases for Australia and the two pairs weighted against the Usd do move in tandem.
Aud GDP came weaker then the previous quarterly release, a drop of 0.2% in quarterly gain. During this week, Aud trade balance came out again negative, showing that exports are still lower than imports. Retail trade had dropped too, not helping that regions standings. I acknowledge this is not New Zealand economic data, but with the amount of time I plan on holding this position, they do have a high correlation of 0.96 to 1.00
     With things looking the way they have played out this week, this position will likely be exited this week with a gain. Quite a bit of data was released and thankfully it was in our direction. Some decisions in the world of precious metals helped on the Usd side and some data on the Nzd side helped out.