The Central Banks evaluating, planning and the decision making process has not been working so far, they have lost sight of the peoples need and expectations. The new normal is Central Banks exporting deflation to on another by printing money, to buy financial assets including sovereign bonds. While the amount of eligible collateral is becoming scarce. Where are the days of practical supply and demand? In the early 2000's Japan was the first to do this, at the height of crisis and it was too late, we are seeing the deflation outcome of mass bond buying in Japan. The main effect is on the currency it ruins and the exchange rate. Just like Japan the ECB may have been too late.
As the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that 1 trillion in Quantitative Easing (QE) will be the only answer to the lagging economy and Euro crisis within the Euro zone. Fundamentally if an economy has the potential for recovery, they leave the interest rates alone. The economy has been unable to reach sustainable growth, they are dependent on exports, so they also have to make sure the Euro does not gain excess strength adding risk to the export market. The QE starts march 1st, with the rate the Euro is dropping it wont be soon enough. The Euro debt is too large to just sit on, unexpected events or risk looming, so much can take place until QE starts.
Mario Draghi who has been the President of the ECB since 2011 when he replaced Jean-Claude Trichet, has been vigorous in convincing the ECB members that QE is the only answer. Draghi who was named by Forbes as the eighth most powerful person in the world, has a resume of a conspiracy writers dream. He is a member of the Group of Thirty (G30) consisting of privet, Central and major bank heads and even some former Central Bank heads from Brazil, Japan, Italy, Argentina, India, Israel, Italy, Mexico, Poland, Singapore, Spain, Canada, Britain, France and Switzerland. Stuart P.M. Mackintosh, Jacob Frenkel, and Paul Volcker along with two Chairmen from the ECB and two chairmen from the New York Federal Reserve, members from international and academia institutions, even a chief economist of the World Bank. It continuous with a chairmen of the Bank for International Settlements, two chief economists from the International Monetary Fund and a chairman of the Basel Committee on Banking supervision. The G30,s chairmen is Draghi predecessor Jean-Claude Trichet. The group started as the Bellagio Group in 1963 by a Austrian economist Fritz Machlup who wanted to investigate the balance of payments crisis and currency problems in the 1960,s. In 1978 Geoffrey Bell started the G30 after a invitation from the Rockefeller Foundation who gave the initial funding to start the G30. If the connections to Rockefeller was not enough Draghi was also the managing director and chairman of Goldman Sachs. One may think this to be a major conflict of interest since he is also the president of the ECB, and perhaps could have a outside agenda. Draghi was also the Italian Executive Director at the world bank, later director of the Italian Treasury, then governor of the Bank of Italy where a loan secured with bonds of two billion Euros to the Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) bank. The Italian Central Bank (Draghi) was making decisions that the Parliament and the public were unaware of and the end result was tax payers repaying the debts with interest and the MPS got government bonds and the ICB ended up with junk bonds. Draghi used this as a foundation for a system that protects privet banks and their owners from nationalisation and economic collapse.
Draghi had been pushing for QE from the start, Greece possibly exiting the Euro, and uncertainty in Ukraine, the "low-flation" in the Euro zone economy Draghi knew he would succeed with QE. This was to be expected by the market and you see it in the sovereign-bond market as the yields fall. Historically the ECB has given ample notice in regards to their decisions, when they had their meeting earlier this month it was a 9-0 vote for QE, only one man Mr. Weale stated that a hike was needed and they pushed back the meeting. The risk of QE is high and banks take on a 80% of the risk in sovereign bond buying, some banks have buffers others do not. Other bail out counties will be massively impacted unable to purchase until it redeems debt and given a limit on holdings for the sovereign issuer.
Negative Rates encourage physical cash, metals and real assets like real estate. This all would equal the opposite of the end game. The Government drives prices up and the people who save lose, and the wants of Government drive the innovation instead of how it should be where Government technology drives price down and consumers drive the innovation. As it stands we pay them to give us our own money.
The total Forex reserve is an estimated 12 trillion, half the government will invest, about a quarter in held in Euros and anything sold by a CB most likely will end up in the privet financial sector, so who knows how much will end up injected into the manipulation of the market. Why do we have to pay for the risks they took ? Well knowing, if there is risk, there will be loss. Don't forget, this will only work the way "they" intend it to.
