Commodities are continuing lower and are vastly lower over the past couple years. Life is good! Yeah we could go over all the reasons the dollar should be collapsing, but what good would that do, the incredibly experienced, educated economists that I do agree with have all been wrong. Why fight it, I know I am done fighting the trend, as of right now it's all about being in and out of the market, bam bam in & out. I think ultimately the days of investing are over, at least for me in the immediate sense. How can one put on a long term position when nothing is following macro fundamentals? The most stable investment right now seems to be buying the Indexes and holding on. How can one confidently do that when we just experienced a major crash and nothing was changed, but a bail out that put us further in the hole. For me the answer is "stick and move", being fluid enough to get in and out of the market riding the ebb & flow of the market. Being able to position myself ahead of the psychological swings that are playing out. When everything is moving because of these variables, positioning yourself for a longer term gain becomes extremely dangerous.
My conclusion is this, right now if you want to be making an income off the markets you need an edge more than ever. Sure, the Indexes have always returned, but the risk has also never been more. Never before have we been pushing such highs along with global consumption being so low. Add into the mix the lower requirements for first time home owners for the second time since mid 2000's, it's a perfect recipe for a total collapse.
Right, with that being said, how long can it keep going? Truthfully, indefinitely. I am at the conclusion that is nobody cares, our debt can go sky high.
Hence getting in and out of the market.
Yes this was a total ramble, not holding any positions this week, so this will have to do.
Have a great day -Pablo