Hello traders, good day.
Positions have moved around, but overall account gain is about the same. Gbp/jpy and Gbp/usd have retracted some, while Usd against Chf and Eur have moved to our benefit. The huge move in our Usd/chf buy came after Swiss trade balance data was released which came out positive 3.87 bln vs 3.23 bln previously, a move of 0.21%. One would think "hey this is positive for CHF, the Usd/Chf should have dropped". You are absolutely right, but no CHF weakened. How? don't worry I will figure out some BS spin to make sense of it :)
If we look at a chart of Usd/Chf, western Europe Tuesday of this week, a large amount of volume came in selling right after western Europe Monday volume had been buying. Factoring oscillation that can occur, the pair was poised for a strong move upwards. That along with a trend line starting at the pairs high for the week extending to next high after volume dropped, makes for a great buy entrance. Another factor could be the Swiss gold referendum from November 30. That had originally moved the Usd/Chf pair up in the preceding week. Which to me makes sense considering they would be holding less gold against there currency, hence a weakened currency. The following week that entire upwards move evaporated almost to the exact price the day before the referendum. What you had was trading participants saying the currency should be weak, then you had the opposition coming in saying no, pushing it back down. I would say most people thought the currency should be weaker, that played out and when volume died out after the gold hype. The "whales" came in on low volume and pushed the pair back down. Two weeks in the pair is down, both retail and manipulators played there hand and you have the pair moving back up where the majority of everyday people/ traders think it should be.
In conclusion, we could see a break out move higher since the highs of 0.9820 have been broken. Who in there right mind would sell at highs not seen in over a year? This could get crazy, this could go sky high!!
Have a great day -Pablo