Are you all paying attention, or just paying?

  “Hope

Smiles from the threshold of the year to come,
Whispering 'it will be happier'...”
― Alfred Tennyson

New Years brings many emotions and ideas among the masses. For some a new beginning, a start over, even hope.  For others it is a great excuse and a safe way to justify actions taken, or lack there of.  You will see a breakdown of ways the market will benefit and turn around after the New Year. When it comes to financial New Year, only about 65 percent of countries have the fiscal year (financial year) identical to the calendar year. For the most part largely traded companies worldwide follow the calendar year, with a few exceptions in the UK, New Zealand, Australia, and Japan.  For many countries there, fiscal year starts in April or July, those and many markets will not see the volume like the U.S. will come January first 2015. The U.S. had the first quarterly report come out and the numbers are looking great. Of course, they are positive that the second quarterly report will be even better. With no talk of interest rates from the FED, at least for now, we see a bullish market with all the holiday spending and anticipation in the “New Beginning”.

The National Association for Business Economics estimate a 3.1 growth in the next year. This has not taken place since 2005, since 2003 we had not seen economic growth like they reported, with the 5 percent yearly rate up from July to September this year.  However the faster the growth the faster the FED will try to raise the interest rates that could mean more vested interest from overseas. The accession of capital would increase the USD, causing other countries to struggle destabilizing their currency, making it hard for the entities to pay back the borrowed greenbacks.  This highlighting once again how disconnected and isolated the U.S. is from the ebb and flow that other countries are going through. Consumers in the U.S. drive growth, and favor the slow growth of other countries.  The numbers being pumped out seem to be fuel for investors to find a safe place in the USD.  With reports of the most jobs in fifteen years, saying America’s debt has declined to the numbers of 2002, ect.

Yet I live in the U.S. and just do not see it, I see unemployment everywhere and students with Master’s degrees unable to afford to buy a house, car or even find a job.  Now all we will have to do, is let them brainwash us into believing that they do have a plan to clean up our world, straighten out the economy, that it is not all a ponzi scam to rig the markets, take our money and enable QE4 (Quantitative Easing, round/phase 4) as quietly as possible.  While they convince us that of course, it has nothing to do with oil, money, or power. They seem to leave information out when reporting the statistics on economic growth, for instance how most of the GDP growth in the third quarter was spent on Obama care, they love to leave facts out.

 How will the FED get away with more QE or a raise in interest rates?  For starters they have to make the economy strong so QE4 is not an option or ineffective.  The fear that the FED will lose control is evident as well as manipulation of the “fundamentals” doing whatever it takes to save the market and their own piles of cash.  Now the world is watching there circus mesmerized and disgusted by the tergiversated attitude we see.  While they go on deceiving us, socializing the losses and privatizing profits, and completely misrepresent there intentions.  It is time to show and prove, and so far we have seen first hand what QE can accomplish.

They will have to straighten out Japan a little; because if Japan is the prime example for success of the FEDs great plan.  Japan was whom the U.S. was ensuing for years.  Japan the archetype for the great USA.  The FED may need to go back to the drawing board, or The Doomsday Book, what ever works for them because Japans situation is just a denouement of QE.  We should see the YEN getting stronger even though there own numbers have not been the best, they did take a hard hit with that large increase in sales tax last quarter.  That raise took a hit on consumer spending, and wedged them into the recession they are experiencing.  They are cleaning up the mess and doing what it takes to stimulate growth by Japans CB buying up financial assets and government bonds to advance inflation.  Let us not be so naive the U.S. is heavily invested in Japan and many of the counties that are suffering and we do have an amazing amount of power with the reserve currency being USD and the petrodollar we will not let some fall too hard. Fast growth may not always be the best, we need to stabilize and adjust to the change, rapid rates sometimes cannot be controlled. The lower oil prices benefit the U.S. spending, creating a way for many people to save and invest in assets, or the market. Lower oil prices really benefit Europe and Japan by expanding the economy globally.